Authors: Richard T. R. Qiu, Doris Chenguang Wu, Vincent Dropsy, Sylvain Petit, Stephen Pratt and Yasuo Ohe
May 2021
It is important to provide scientific assessments concerning the future of tourism under the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. To this purpose, this paper presents a two-stage threescenario forecast framework for inbound-tourism demand across 20 countries. The main findings are as follows: in the first-stage ex-post forecasts, the stacking models are more accurate
and robust, especially when combining five single models. The second-stage ex-ante forecasts
are based on three recovery scenarios: a mild case assuming a V-shaped recovery, a medium
one with a V/U-shaped, and a severe one with an L-shaped. The forecast results show a
wide range of recovery (10%–70%) in 2021 compared to 2019. This two-stage three-scenario
framework contributes to the improvement in the accuracy and robustness of tourism demand
forecasting.
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